18 November 2010
The release of Nobel laureate and the symbol of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, Aung San Suu Kyi on 13 November 2010 saw celebrations not only among pro-democracy groups in Myanmar, but also supporters worldwide. This sudden benevolence on the part of the military junta-backed government of Myanmar is not completely surprising. Suu Kyi’s sentence had been increased under the provisions of the new constitution of Myanmar so that her release would coincide with the poll results of the elections held on 7 November, in which the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won. Critics feel that this arrangement was made to divert international attention from the poll result.
While it is too early to analyze the implications of Suu Kyi’s release on Myanmar, it would be interesting to watch how she and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), manage to get back into the political process, having boycotted the elections. It does not seem likely that Suu Kyi will take the road of revolution against the present government as she may be arrested again if she does. While she has pressed for democratization, she also extended an olive branch to the government and called for a dialogue with Gen. Than Shwe to reach an amicable consensus.
Suu Kyi also expressed a desire to work on a second Panglong Conference, following in the footsteps of her father, Gen. Aung San, who held the first conference in February 1947 to enshrine equal rights for people of all ethnicities in Myanmar post-independence. Due to Gen. Aung San's assassination a few months later however, the agreement was never enacted. Suu Kyi's struggle though has helped highlight the situation of ethnic minorities and ceasefire groups in Myanmar. These sections support the pro-democracy movement as it would help them regain equality with the majority Barmars. Hence, ethnic political parties who have won a few seats in the elections have expressed support for her.
Western countries including the US and its allies welcomed Suu Kyi's release and expressed hope for a real change in the political system of Myanmar. The Nobel Prize committee has invited her to give the acceptance speech which she could not deliver when she received the Prize in 1991. Australia, UK, France and the EU also expressed hope for a better Myanmar. In Asia, Japan and Thailand welcomed her release, but Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva did point out that to think “one particular event would be big enough to signal some kind of radical change” was unrealistic. While ASEAN General Secretary, Surin Pitsuswan hoped for Suu Kyi to “contribute to true national reconciliation,” United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called her “an inspiration” and called upon the Myanmarese government to also release other political prisoners, who number around 2,200.
However, for countries engaged in economic and strategic partnerships with Myanmar, it was a diplomatic tightrope walk. China, Singapore, Vietnam and India have all remained largely non-committal. For New Delhi, it is an extremely delicate situation; India shares over 1,600km (900 miles) of land borders with Myanmar and despite being the world’s largest democracy and expected to push for a democratic process in Myanmar, cannot also disregard its national interests such as they are defined by the government of the day. Indian External Affairs Minister, SM Krishna meanwhile, expressed hope for a positive political change and validated the elections in the country in an official statement.
The NLD being a defunct party, politically, it may be difficult for Suu Kyi to gain an upper hand, but she may be able to press for some reforms owing to her clout with Western powers. Myanmar is a potential resource base for many economies in Asia as well as the West. With countries that Myanmar already enjoys established trade links with, Suu Kyi's role may be limited. However, with countries like the US and its allies, she enjoys a privileged status which may help her in urging them to rethink their sanctions on Myanmar for better investments and the opening up of the country. China may find its influence on the wane in such a scenario.
Also, the junta-backed government has over the past two decades and more, curtailed pro-democracy supporters and alienated Suu Kyi from the masses. Therefore, to be seen as an important agent of change, she must engage once again with the public and reach out to the youth of the country. However, in order to not be arrested again, she cannot actively pursue political aspirations and hence could better serve as a voice of reason in the chaotic political scenario.
If the people of Myanmar and the international community are looking for quick-fix solutions for the political upheaval in the country, they are going to be disappointed. Suu Kyi is no Messiah who will lead the masses towards instant salvation. Her release is just the first of many steps that need to be taken to achieve any semblance of political order and economic stability in Myanmar.
http://www.ipcs.org/article/southeast-asia/suu-kyis-release-as-the-dust-begins-to-settle-3282.html
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Myanmar Elections 2010: Profile of Major Political Parties
3 November 2010
Following on from the 2003 announcement of the “Seven-step Roadmap to Democracy,” Myanmar will hold its first elections in two decades on 7 November 2010. Elections will be held to the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Assembly) made up of the Pyithu Hluttaw (People’s Assembly/lower house) and Amyotha Hluttaw (National Assembly/upper house). These elections will be held in accordance with the 2008 constitution of the country which mandates 25 per cent of seats both at national and regional level, to be allotted to the military. As a result, there are questions raised about the legitimacy of these elections. However, it is also quite possible that they may provide Myanmar with a base for future democratic evolution and prove to be a good thing after all.
It should come as no surprise that the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), headed by Prime Minister Thein Sein and the National Unity Party (NUP), an offshoot of the Burma Socialist Programme Party which was led by General Ne Win, are expected to emerge as the frontrunners in these elections. Nevertheless, it is an interesting exercise to study the mixed bag of political parties who will be giving them competition.
A total of 1,163 seats will be contested in the country, including both, national and regional parliaments. And it is clear from analyzing the candidates list that the USDP and NUP will be the biggest gainers of these elections since they are contesting in most of the constituencies. While the USDP has floated over 1,100 candidates, the NUP is not far behind with about 980. Out of the total NUP candidature, the party will be contesting 294 seats for the lower house, 149 seats for the upper house and 537 for regional and state parliaments.
Giving them competition is the National Democratic Force (NDF). The NDF comprises some former National League for Democracy (NLD) party members who were earlier loyalists of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. They will contest 108 lower house constituencies, 34 upper house constituencies and 19 seats in state and regional parliaments with an estimated 161 candidates primarily contesting in Yangon and Mandalay Regions (formerly called Divisions).
Closely following them is the White Tiger or Shan National Democratic Party (SNDP) with about 157 candidates mainly in Shan and Kachin states with 45 candidates for lower house, 15 candidates for upper house and 97 candidates in Shan and Kachin state and regional parliaments. The SNDP expects maximum voting in their favour along the troubled Thai-Myanmar border from the Shans and ethnic Chinese Wa residents of the areas.
The Democratic Party of Myanmar is also expected to perform well with some 50 candidates primarily in Yangon. The other party in the fray is the Union of Myanmar Federation of National Politics (UMFNP) which is fielding some 45 candidates in all mostly in Magwe and Yangon.
The Suu Kyi-led NLD party, which was touted to be the toughest competition to USDP, withdrew its candidature from contesting in the elections, disappointing pro-democracy supporters of the country. However, the NLD continued its involvement by conducting “voter education camps” in several constituencies urging the people to reject the elections by choosing to refrain from voting as provided in the Election Commission Law. They have however been warned by the ruling junta against carrying out such camps.
A small number of ethnic parties also floated their candidatures, but, their presence is unlikely to disturb the expected result. While parties like the All Mon Region Democracy Party (AMRDP) with 25 candidates and National Progressive Party (RNPD) with 45 candidates are contesting for constituencies in their states, the Karen People’s Party (KPP) with 42 candidates will contest mostly in Irrawaddy and Yangon Regions not in the Karen State itself. There is also a negligible candidature of the Wa National Unity Party with four candidates in Shan State.
The country’s 53 million ethnic minorities (the largest group being the Bamar) remain a volatile group, and especially in the Shan and Karen States and pose a threat to the election process. Elections in these states are doubtful due to the prevailing violence. A total of 17 ethnic armed groups have become party to various agreements with the government, but those who are still fighting against the junta are expected to disrupt the polling process.
Despite the disturbances, the government expects a reasonable turnout for voting. Not much deviation from the predicted path is expected in terms of the outcome though. For now, Myanmar’s dance of democracy has just begun and the tempo is only likely to go up in the coming days.
http://www.ipcs.org/article/southeast-asia/myanmar-elections-2010-ii-profile-of-major-political-parties-3274.html
Following on from the 2003 announcement of the “Seven-step Roadmap to Democracy,” Myanmar will hold its first elections in two decades on 7 November 2010. Elections will be held to the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Assembly) made up of the Pyithu Hluttaw (People’s Assembly/lower house) and Amyotha Hluttaw (National Assembly/upper house). These elections will be held in accordance with the 2008 constitution of the country which mandates 25 per cent of seats both at national and regional level, to be allotted to the military. As a result, there are questions raised about the legitimacy of these elections. However, it is also quite possible that they may provide Myanmar with a base for future democratic evolution and prove to be a good thing after all.
It should come as no surprise that the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), headed by Prime Minister Thein Sein and the National Unity Party (NUP), an offshoot of the Burma Socialist Programme Party which was led by General Ne Win, are expected to emerge as the frontrunners in these elections. Nevertheless, it is an interesting exercise to study the mixed bag of political parties who will be giving them competition.
A total of 1,163 seats will be contested in the country, including both, national and regional parliaments. And it is clear from analyzing the candidates list that the USDP and NUP will be the biggest gainers of these elections since they are contesting in most of the constituencies. While the USDP has floated over 1,100 candidates, the NUP is not far behind with about 980. Out of the total NUP candidature, the party will be contesting 294 seats for the lower house, 149 seats for the upper house and 537 for regional and state parliaments.
Giving them competition is the National Democratic Force (NDF). The NDF comprises some former National League for Democracy (NLD) party members who were earlier loyalists of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. They will contest 108 lower house constituencies, 34 upper house constituencies and 19 seats in state and regional parliaments with an estimated 161 candidates primarily contesting in Yangon and Mandalay Regions (formerly called Divisions).
Closely following them is the White Tiger or Shan National Democratic Party (SNDP) with about 157 candidates mainly in Shan and Kachin states with 45 candidates for lower house, 15 candidates for upper house and 97 candidates in Shan and Kachin state and regional parliaments. The SNDP expects maximum voting in their favour along the troubled Thai-Myanmar border from the Shans and ethnic Chinese Wa residents of the areas.
The Democratic Party of Myanmar is also expected to perform well with some 50 candidates primarily in Yangon. The other party in the fray is the Union of Myanmar Federation of National Politics (UMFNP) which is fielding some 45 candidates in all mostly in Magwe and Yangon.
The Suu Kyi-led NLD party, which was touted to be the toughest competition to USDP, withdrew its candidature from contesting in the elections, disappointing pro-democracy supporters of the country. However, the NLD continued its involvement by conducting “voter education camps” in several constituencies urging the people to reject the elections by choosing to refrain from voting as provided in the Election Commission Law. They have however been warned by the ruling junta against carrying out such camps.
A small number of ethnic parties also floated their candidatures, but, their presence is unlikely to disturb the expected result. While parties like the All Mon Region Democracy Party (AMRDP) with 25 candidates and National Progressive Party (RNPD) with 45 candidates are contesting for constituencies in their states, the Karen People’s Party (KPP) with 42 candidates will contest mostly in Irrawaddy and Yangon Regions not in the Karen State itself. There is also a negligible candidature of the Wa National Unity Party with four candidates in Shan State.
The country’s 53 million ethnic minorities (the largest group being the Bamar) remain a volatile group, and especially in the Shan and Karen States and pose a threat to the election process. Elections in these states are doubtful due to the prevailing violence. A total of 17 ethnic armed groups have become party to various agreements with the government, but those who are still fighting against the junta are expected to disrupt the polling process.
Despite the disturbances, the government expects a reasonable turnout for voting. Not much deviation from the predicted path is expected in terms of the outcome though. For now, Myanmar’s dance of democracy has just begun and the tempo is only likely to go up in the coming days.
http://www.ipcs.org/article/southeast-asia/myanmar-elections-2010-ii-profile-of-major-political-parties-3274.html
Myanmar Elections 2010 – I: It's All About Exclusion
16 September 2010
The November 2010 elections in Myanmar do not promise to be fair and inclusive nor do they come with the agenda of complete restoration of democracy in the country. But, one thing these elections promise to be is a step towards a transformation which comes with opportunities for some important political changes in the future.
How significant are these changes going to be when the present situation looks grossly unjust? How will the outcome be affected when the new electoral laws have barred certain citizens including the most visible supporter of democracy in the country, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi? Are these elections only an attempt by the military junta-backed State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) led by Prime Minister Thein Sein and the National Unity Party (NUP) to legitimize and further consolidate their power?
The USDP and NUP have reportedly floated more than 1,100 and 980 candidates respectively, nationwide. A total of 1,163 seats will be contested for national and state parliaments; this is in addition to the 25 per cent seats reserved for the military in parliament. However, USDP is aiming to win an overwhelming 90 per cent seats, to ensure two out of three vice-presidential candidates from the military.
The elections will be held in accordance to the new constitution which came into effect after a similarly non-inclusive referendum in May 2008. It forms the fifth step of the seven-step “road map to democracy” announced by the SPDC. Following this, the sixth and seventh steps – convening of elected representatives and building of a modern, democratic nation, respectively will supposedly be pursued. The new Constitution and election laws have provisions for exclusion of many sections, especially those against the present regime. People are also questioning the validity of the junta’s “attempts to restore democracy” in Myanmar when over 2,100 political prisoners are not being released and are barred from contesting these elections under the provisions of the 2008 constitution.
At least two constitutional provisions – anyone with a criminal conviction or who is married to a person of different nationality cannot participate in the election process; exclude Suu Kyi from the electoral process. The laws also forbid any group which employs and trains armed forces against the ruling government, from forming a political party and thus, contesting in the election. Hence, the majority of ethnic ceasefire groups, while removed from the list of unlawful organizations, will not be granted the right to any political process without first converting their armed forces into a Border Guard Force functioning under the existing regime.
This may pose some problems as these groups are eventually likely to prevent polling in territories they control which will again leave out a large number of people from voting. The Shan and Karen states seem to be the big casualties of these stipulations as it is highly unlikely that there will be any polling there owing to the provision which states that only conflict-free areas can hold elections.
Members of religious orders are also prohibited from affiliating themselves to a political party and thus, contest elections. This implies that the monks who protested against the government in 2008 cannot take part in the electoral process.
Then there is Suu Kyi’s party, National League for Democracy (NLD), which officially boycotted the elections. It is now conducting “voter education camps” in several constituencies urging the people to reject the elections by choosing to refrain from voting as provided in the Election Commission Law. This is expected to further bring down the number of people participating in the elections.
While it is evident that the Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye, will step down following the elections, their influence will still be felt quite substantially in the new government. It is therefore safe to assume that these elections will see the existing regime back in power, more dominant than before as it would now have a legal sanction as the winner of a nationwide election. The international community may or may not agree with this expected outcome, but it would have to accept it nevertheless.
However, how does one accept an outcome whose entire foundation is exclusion? For the present government, anyone who does not agree with them is not welcome in the system. The junta-led government has decided that even the slightest inclination to oppose the regime will result in exclusion from the elections. Former American President Harry S. Truman once remarked, “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of the opposition, it has only one way to go and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror for all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.” This holds true for Myanmar in the present context. The credibility of the first Myanmarese elections in 20 years is at stake, but the junta seems unperturbed. The Myanmarese people’s long wait for democracy in their country is far from over.
http://www.ipcs.org/article/southeast-asia/myanmar-elections-2010-i-its-all-about-exclusion-3238.html
The November 2010 elections in Myanmar do not promise to be fair and inclusive nor do they come with the agenda of complete restoration of democracy in the country. But, one thing these elections promise to be is a step towards a transformation which comes with opportunities for some important political changes in the future.
How significant are these changes going to be when the present situation looks grossly unjust? How will the outcome be affected when the new electoral laws have barred certain citizens including the most visible supporter of democracy in the country, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi? Are these elections only an attempt by the military junta-backed State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) led by Prime Minister Thein Sein and the National Unity Party (NUP) to legitimize and further consolidate their power?
The USDP and NUP have reportedly floated more than 1,100 and 980 candidates respectively, nationwide. A total of 1,163 seats will be contested for national and state parliaments; this is in addition to the 25 per cent seats reserved for the military in parliament. However, USDP is aiming to win an overwhelming 90 per cent seats, to ensure two out of three vice-presidential candidates from the military.
The elections will be held in accordance to the new constitution which came into effect after a similarly non-inclusive referendum in May 2008. It forms the fifth step of the seven-step “road map to democracy” announced by the SPDC. Following this, the sixth and seventh steps – convening of elected representatives and building of a modern, democratic nation, respectively will supposedly be pursued. The new Constitution and election laws have provisions for exclusion of many sections, especially those against the present regime. People are also questioning the validity of the junta’s “attempts to restore democracy” in Myanmar when over 2,100 political prisoners are not being released and are barred from contesting these elections under the provisions of the 2008 constitution.
At least two constitutional provisions – anyone with a criminal conviction or who is married to a person of different nationality cannot participate in the election process; exclude Suu Kyi from the electoral process. The laws also forbid any group which employs and trains armed forces against the ruling government, from forming a political party and thus, contesting in the election. Hence, the majority of ethnic ceasefire groups, while removed from the list of unlawful organizations, will not be granted the right to any political process without first converting their armed forces into a Border Guard Force functioning under the existing regime.
This may pose some problems as these groups are eventually likely to prevent polling in territories they control which will again leave out a large number of people from voting. The Shan and Karen states seem to be the big casualties of these stipulations as it is highly unlikely that there will be any polling there owing to the provision which states that only conflict-free areas can hold elections.
Members of religious orders are also prohibited from affiliating themselves to a political party and thus, contest elections. This implies that the monks who protested against the government in 2008 cannot take part in the electoral process.
Then there is Suu Kyi’s party, National League for Democracy (NLD), which officially boycotted the elections. It is now conducting “voter education camps” in several constituencies urging the people to reject the elections by choosing to refrain from voting as provided in the Election Commission Law. This is expected to further bring down the number of people participating in the elections.
While it is evident that the Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye, will step down following the elections, their influence will still be felt quite substantially in the new government. It is therefore safe to assume that these elections will see the existing regime back in power, more dominant than before as it would now have a legal sanction as the winner of a nationwide election. The international community may or may not agree with this expected outcome, but it would have to accept it nevertheless.
However, how does one accept an outcome whose entire foundation is exclusion? For the present government, anyone who does not agree with them is not welcome in the system. The junta-led government has decided that even the slightest inclination to oppose the regime will result in exclusion from the elections. Former American President Harry S. Truman once remarked, “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of the opposition, it has only one way to go and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror for all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.” This holds true for Myanmar in the present context. The credibility of the first Myanmarese elections in 20 years is at stake, but the junta seems unperturbed. The Myanmarese people’s long wait for democracy in their country is far from over.
http://www.ipcs.org/article/southeast-asia/myanmar-elections-2010-i-its-all-about-exclusion-3238.html
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